2017 NIST Agile Robotics for Industrial Automation Competition (ARIAC)

This year NIST organized a simulation based competition called Agile Robotics for Industrial Automation Competition (ARIAC). The idea was to move away from traditional robots that execute preprogrammed motion. Teams were challenged to build a system that can dynamically respond to failures in grasping, defective parts, and priority orders. Teams were expected to do this by using the minimum number of sensors. The task in the competition was focused on building assembly kits. The robot had to pick parts from bins and a conveyor and place them on automated guided vehicles.

Please see https://www.nist.gov/news-events/news/2016/01/nist-launches-international-competition-make-robots-more-agile for details on this competition.

My group fielded a team in ARIAC. Team members included Matt Buckley and Brual Shah. Competition results were announced on July 5, 2017. Please see https://www.osrfoundation.org/ariac-finals-results-announced/ for details. I am happy to report that our team won the competition.

You can check out our competition entry in the video shown below.

Why Automation is a Key to Innovation?

Every week I see news items that identify automation as a major threat to jobs. This is beginning to paint automation as an enemy of financial well-being of a large segment of human population. However, there is a different side to the automation story. Automation has been a major force behind many modern innovations and associated industries. Unfortunately, the connection between automation and innovation has not received much attention in the media. 

Often automation has been presented as a means to eliminate the need for humans to do dull, dangerous, and dirty tasks. Moreover, the value of automation is often rationalized in terms of cost reductions. If automation is viewed only with this lens, then it basically comes across as an instrument to replace humans with machines and hence exacerbating employment prospects for many people. In many people’s mind automation is all about “dumb” machines doing the same task over and over in a monotonous way. Innovation requires human ingenuity and creativity, so automation cannot be farther away from being an enabler for innovation. This view is too myopic and prevents people from seeing the value of automation in enabling innovations and growing new industries.
 
Automation’s biggest contribution has been in assisting humans to overcome their inherent limitations in speed, strength, size, accuracy, consistency, and reaction time. Constraints associated with human capabilities ultimately limit what types of products can be realized with manual operations. Automation presents a solution to overcome these constraints. Once we think about automation from this perspective, we realize that automation can help us in realizing products that have complex shapes and small feature sizes and require high accuracy.
 
Automation has been leveraged to create many innovative products that cannot be made using manual operations. Here are few representative examples of innovations from the medical industry that were enabled by automation:

• Computer Controlled Laser Machining: Computer controlled lasers have revolutionized machining. The software automatically controls the laser and can create really complex shapes on hard to machine metals in a matter minutes. Stents have been credited with saving many lives and they will simply not exist without computer controlled laser machining to realize complex shapes with small features.
• 3D Printing: 3D printing epitomizes automation. A computer analyzes three dimensional model of the desired part and generates instructions so that a machine can automatically build it layer by layer. Shapes that cannot be produced by any means can be realized easily using 3D printing. Customized hearing aids will simply not exist without automation. 3D printing is also enabling customized implants and prosthesis. 
• Automated Printed Circuit Board Assembly: Robots and motion control stages have revolutionized how printed circuit boards are assembled today. Automation enables printed circuit boards to utilize very small components that are packed very tightly in a confined space to create lightweight miniature electronics. The quality of life for diabetes patients will significantly deteriorate without glucose meters. Modern glucose meters rely on lightweight miniature electronics to function. These products will simply not be possible without automation in manufacturing of printed circuit board assemblies.

In summary, many innovative medical devices will simply cease to exist without the “helping hand” from automation.
 
I am concerned that all the negative press about automation will create a backlash against it. We really need advances in automation to realize the next generation products that will improve the quality of life. Automation is certainly creating challenges for the workforce and we need to find a solution to address it. However, we need to acknowledge the value of automation in driving innovations.

KUKA Innovation Award 2017

My group at the University of Southern California fielded a team in KUKA Innovation Award 2017 competition. Team members included Ariyan Kabir, Sarah Al-Hussaini, Abdullah Alsharhan, Vivek Annem, Iain Brookshaw, Qi Deng, Alec Kanyuck, Nithyananda Kumbla, Joshua Langsfeld, Rishi Malhan, Fadel Muci, Brual Shah, and Shantanu Thakar. 

After two preliminary rounds, our team was selected as one of the five finalists. Applicants for this award were expected to demonstrate an innovative robotic application using Kuka iiwa arms. Our team traveled to Hannover Messe in Germany to showcase our entry in the competition. This is one of the largest trade fair in the world. Usually, more than 250,000 visitors attend this trade fair. Distinguished visitors this year included Angela Merkel, Chancellor of Germany.

The focus of our application was automation of finishing processes such as grinding, sanding, and polishing. We combined planning, control, perception, learning, and augmented reality technologies to create a new robotic system for finishing operations. Our setup used two robots. The first robot held the part and the second robot manipulated the cleaning tool. We used external sensors to monitor the task progress.

Our application was significantly different from the traditional robotic applications in manufacturing. Robots in traditional manufacturing operations use pre-programmed motions to carry out the tasks. This idea only works when a robot is used is mass production application to make the same part over and over and this approach does not help in low volume production. An example of this is post-processing operations in additive manufacturing of custom parts. For metal based 3D printing, surface finishing operations are still manual and can take a very long time.

Angela Merkel, Chancellor of Germany walked past our booth (Image Source: Kuka)

Visitors at our Booth (Image Source: USC CAM)

Our Booth at Hannover Messe (Image Source: Kuka)

Picture at Awards Ceremony (Image Source: Kuka)

Our team with the Finalist Trophy (Image Source: USC CAM)

Manual surface finishing tasks are very tedious and time consuming and contribute significantly to the total cost in manufacturing. They also pose risks to the health of the workers. Our team believed that robots should do the tedious labor and humans should perform high level decision making in surface finishing operations. This way, we can increase the productivity of human operators and improve their quality of life.

The automated finishing system needed to manage the interaction between robots, tools, and the part to be finished. Robots needed to learn and optimize parameters on-the-fly for any given object and plan their moves. A perception system was also required for detection and localization, assessing surface quality, and ensuring safety. To achieve these goals, we integrated new planning and learning algorithms with the existing technology for perception and control.

Overall we received a lot of positive feedback on our demonstration. Many companies were interested in deploying our technology. Our team returned back to USC with a resolve to mature the technology and get it ready for deployment.

What can robotics community learn from artists with disabilities?

The robotics community aspires to build general purpose robots that can perform complex tasks effortlessly. In reality, we see the current generation of robots struggling to do even simple tasks.

We as roboticists admire human painters that can breathe life into canvasses with few brush strokes and sculptors in whose hands a marble slab melts like butter and an stunning awe-inspiring form emerges. We sigh with envy and hope that someday our robots will be good enough to carve a recognizable shape into the marble without us writing few hundred thousand lines of code.

We often look at human hands and eyes and marvel at the ingenious “design” behind the two. Everything from the available number of degrees of freedom to highly adaptive and high resolution sensing is truly remarkable. Human hands and eyes working in tandem endow artists with impressive hand-eye coordination capabilities that enable them to perform “miracles” and create mesmerizing art.
 
We compare human hands and eyes with the “clunky” hand designs and “dumb” cameras found in robots of today and resign to the fact that with current robotic hand and vision technologies, we are not going to get too far in terms of mimicking any impressive human feat. Do we need to wait for significantly improved robot hand and perception technology to build more capable robots or can we do better with what we already have?
 
I have been recently researching art created by artists with different types of disabilities. I am developing a very different perspective on whether the current hand and eye technology limitations are holding back the robotics community.  


I recently was introduced to paintings created by artists with severe visual impairment. A good starting point is “10 Remarkable Paintings by Blind and Visually Impaired Artists”.  This work is truly inspiring. Figures 1 and 2 show two representative paintings.

Figure 1: A painting by 
John Bramblitt (Image Source: http://illusion.scene360.com/art/78311/blind-artists/)

Figure 2: A painting by Eşref Armağan (Image Source: http://esrefarmagan.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/24.png)

Doug Landis is paralyzed from the neck down. He holds a pen in his mouth and creates amazing drawings by controlling the pen with his mouth. His art work is called mouth art. Figure 3 shows one of his drawings.
 

Figure 3: A painting by Doug Landis (Image Source: http://www.odditycentral.com/pics/doug-landis-mouth-art.html)

These examples show that humans are able to create amazing art despite serious physical handicaps. Something magical happens in the brain and it enables the artist to create amazing art by controlling the available sensing and manipulation modalities. Many years ago Matt Mason told me that "simple hands" are capable of doing quite a bit. My recent explorations seem to support that point of view. We need to develop a better understanding of what minimal sensory and manipulation capabilities are needed to create a piece of art.  

Hopefully, this post will inspire roboticists to stop waiting for the perfect robot hands and eyes. We ought to be able to do better with what we have right now.   

Robots for Social Good

News stories that portray robots as “villains” often get much publicity by creating fear and panic among the general public. For example, as a result of recent high profile news stories, many people are beginning to view robots (and automation technologies in general) as a major threat to their jobs and financial well-being. The widespread availability of drones —I consider drones as a type of robot-- is raising serious questions about their roles in spying on the unsuspecting pubic and the loss of privacy. Concerns about the dangers of weaponized robots that could intentionally or accidentally kill human beings have been raised at several international forums. Robots equipped with advanced artificial intelligence are beginning to raise alarm that self-learning robots might lead to a doomsday scenario by subjugating the human race. I find all this negative publicity highly one-sided and a recipe for a Robophobia epidemic. We really need to pay attention to the positive side of the rise-of-robots story to get an accurate assessment of the situation.

A large number of people are working on applications of robots that focus on the social good. I want to use this post to highlight this aspect of robots. Here are a few representative examples:

• Robots are expected to significantly improve agriculture practice by monitoring crops constantly and using water, fertilizers, and pesticides more precisely. This emerging area is called precision agriculture and can significantly conserve water and reduce the use of fertilizers and pesticides to make our farms more eco-friendly. 
• Robots are being used to monitor wildlife population and curb poaching of endangered animals by more effectively mobilizing limited law enforcement agents and gathering evidence for prosecution. 
• The next generation prosthetics is is expected to be based on advances in robotics and will help people with disabilities in gaining independence and living a more productive life. 
• Robots will enable elderly people to live in their own homes with dignity and hence significantly improve their quality of life. 
• Robots can bring high quality healthcare to remote regions through tele-robotics concepts. This is expected to improve access to healthcare and control outbreaks of deadly diseases. 
• Robots are showing potential for use in behavior therapy for autism spectrum disorders. 
• Human-safe robots will help manufacturing workers to increase their productivity and reducing the chances of workplace injuries. This can be used to grow new businesses and maintain high paying jobs in the manufacturing sector. 
• Driverless cars are expected to significantly reduce transportation fatalities caused by human errors. This will also make personal transportation accessible to people who cannot drive due to disabilities or declining abilities.
• Robots can be used to deliver humanitarian aid to regions that become inaccessible due to natural disasters. 
• Robots have emerged as invaluable tools in K-12 STEM education. FIRST Robotics continues to grow, gain momentum and inspire millions of young people worldwide.

I view robots simply as tools to augment human abilities. Like any other major technological advance, robots can be used by some humans to harm other humans. However, the potential of robots to enable humans to do social good far outweighs this risk.

How many jobs can a fully automated factory create?

I am in favor of decreasing physical labor through automation on factory floors in the US. I consider this the only viable strategy for improving the employment picture in the manufacturing sector in the US.

Some people hear this and start doubting my ability to do simple arithmetic. Their perspective is that automation kills manufacturing jobs and hence it is to be avoided if we want to boost employment numbers in the manufacturing sector.
 

This blog post tries to explain how automation creates high paying service sector jobs. As a thought experiment, imagine a factory that is fully automated --- no human contributes to any physical activity needed to transform the raw material into finished products. It is highly unlikely that a factory would be of any practical value. The presence of humans provides tremendous flexibility in manufacturing operations. However, for the sake of argument, let us assume that such a factory exist. Would such a factory be useful to the community where it resides from the employment perspective?
 

Below is a representative list of tasks that humans will need to perform to support a fully automated factory. 

• Design/Engineering Services: Manufacturing companies work closely with customers to help them design and refine their products to make sure that products are optimized for manufacturing. 
• Financing/Accounting: Running a factory requires actively managing the cash flow. 
• Sales/Marketing: Drumming up business for the factory requires a competent sales and marketing team. 
• Purchasing/Procurement: A functioning factory needs to purchase raw materials, tools, and supplies. 
• IT Services: A modern factory cannot run without IT services. 
• Infrastructure Maintenance: In order to function, a factory requires access to infrastructure. This infrastructure needs to be maintained. 
• Shipping and Transportation: The raw material and finished products need to go in and out of the factory. 
• Equipment Maintenance and Service: The equipment in the factory needs to be maintained and serviced to keep it functional. 
• Utilities: The factory needs access to utilities such as energy and water. 
• Building/Construction: Factory buildings need to be maintained and updated. 
• Insurance: Factories need tailored insurance products to manage risks. 
• IP/Legal Services: Factories need legal services to protect their IP.

All of the jobs listed above will continue to be performed by humans in the near foreseeable future. My analysis indicates that a region with healthy manufacturing operations gains quite a few service sector jobs. In my opinion, it is better to automate and keep the service jobs to support manufacturing operations rather than let the manufacturing move to low wage countries and lose both manufacturing and service jobs. Unfortunately, in a globally connected economy there is no other viable alternative. Ultimately, continued erosion of  critical manufacturing infrastructure will compromise the national security.  Hence, we have no choice but to embrace automation to maintain a healthy manufacturing base.

Unfortunately, existing robotics technologies do not help small production volume operations in reducing manual labor. Hence, such operations often find themselves in an unfavorable position from the cost perspective with respect to low wage countries. Recent advances in robotics are creating hardware and software that enable robots to be used on non-repetitive tasks. Hopefully, this will lead to a wide scale adoption of robots in small production volume operations and help in growing manufacturing operations in the US. 

The transition to increased automation in the manufacturing sector will not be easy. We will need workforce training programs to ensure that people who are laid off as a result of automation are trained to do other jobs at the factories.

I would like to thank Scott Macdonald, CEO, Maryland Thermoform Corporation for his insightful feedback on this topic.

My Ten Favorite Robots

A few months ago someone asked me, “What are your top ten favorite robots?” I had not given this topic much thought and it was hard to give an impromptu answer to this question.

I have finally created the list of my ten favorite robots. This was a very difficult task. Choosing ten from hundreds of worthy candidates is never easy. I decided to restrict myself to robots that were developed in the last twenty years. I focused on robots that have been available for at least two years and have a significant track record of demonstrating outstanding performance. Here is my list in the alphabetical order of robot names.

1. Asimo from Honda:  This was the first humanoid robot capable of running and walking on uneven slopes and surfaces and climbing stairs.

Asimo from Honda
(Image Source: http://asimo.honda.com/)

2. Baxter from Rethink Robotics:  This was the first human-safe robot to offer bimanual capabilities at an affordable price and learning from demonstrations.

Baxter from Rethink Robotics
(Images Source: http://www.rethinkrobotics.com/baxter/)

3. Curiosity Mars Rover from NASA JPL: This was the first space robot that attracted wide attention from the public and inspired numerous K-12 students to get involved in science.

Curiosity Mars Rover from NASA JPL
(Image Source: https://www.facebook.com/MarsCuriosity/)

4. da Vinci Surgical System from Intuitive Surgical: This was the first widely used robot in minimally invasive surgeries. 

da Vinci Surgical System from Intuitive Surgical
(Image Source:  http://www.intuitivesurgical.com/)

5. LBR IIWA from Kuka: This was the first human-safe lightweight robot suitable for industrial applications involving dexterity and force sensing.

LBR IIWA from Kuka
(Image Source: http://www.kuka-robotics.com/)

6. LS3 from Boston Dynamics: This was the first quadruped robot capable of walking on rough terrains and stabilizing itself in the presence of large external disturbances.

LS3 from Boston Dynamics
(Image Source: http://www.bostondynamics.com/)

7. Nao from Aldebaran: This was the first widely used social robot in education related applications.

Nao from Aldebaran
(Image Source: https://www.aldebaran.com/)

8. PackBot from iRobot: This was the first robot to be widely used in bomb disposal and surveillance and was responsible for saving many lives.

PackBot from iRobot
(Image Source: http://www.irobot.com/)

9. Phantom from DJI: This was the first affordable quadrotor that has all the capabilities a user wants in a flying robot.

Phantom from DJI
(Image Source: http://www.dji.com/)

10. Roomba from iRobot: This was the first robot widely used in homes.

Roomba from iRobot
(Image Source:  http://www.irobot.com/)

This list was restricted to ten robots, so I had to leave out many worthy candidates. I would like to hear about your favorites.

Are You Ready to Dance with Robots?

The world of art plays an important role in human lives. The art mesmerizes and inspires us. It unleashes the creative energy and challenges conventional thinking. It provokes new thoughts and compels us to ask new questions. Can robots play a role in the art world?

Fictional robots have been playing prominent roles in movies for many years. Star Wars movies will not be the same without C-3PO and R2D2. The use of robots in movies enables writers to create new plots and enables actors to interact with superhuman characters.

The field of robotics has made tremendous progress. We now have truly remarkable robots. Can these real robots influence the art world?

I had an opportunity to interview Huang Yi on Thursday September 24, 2015 in the Clarice Smith Performing Arts Center. He is one of the pioneers of a new form of dance. His partner is a Kuka robot!

Kogod Theater Stage (Photograph by Rebecca Copeland) 

He currently uses a large intimidating orange Kuka robot in his performances. He said that he liked the Kuka robot because of its form. He programs his “dance partner” to glide through a space in harmony with music. Huang Yi and the robot move in unison during the performance and are able to express emotions to complement and augment the ambiance created by the music. His thought provoking performance asks us to examine the relationship between humans and robots.

Huang Yi's Dance Partner
(Photograph by Rebecca Copeland)

Huang Yi likes the complete predictability of the robot moves. It makes the dance safe and enables him to keep the tempo high without worrying about the need to constantly watch the robot. Currently it takes him ten hours of programming to create one minute of performance.

I wonder how this form of dance will change as robots become more intelligent and safe? Safety will encourage many more people to explore dancing with robots. Intelligence will enable robots to react to human moves and hopefully it will become easier to create new dance moves.

Huang Yi in the lab with our Kuka robots
(Photograph by Rebecca Copeland) 

Some art students in the audience seem a bit concerned about the need to learn programming to master this new art form. Hopefully advances in the area of learning from demonstrations can eliminate this barrier.

I wonder how this art form will change if we had robots that can understand the human emotions and gauge the mood expressed by the music!

What will it take for you to dance with robots?

RoboSAM: A robot that is smart enough to call humans for help!

In my opinion, one of the most important attributes of being smart is the ability to seek help when needed. This requires realizing that help is needed and getting the right kind of help from the right source. Currently, robots do not have an ability to assess whether they can successfully complete a task or not. When instructed to do a task, they simply attempt to do it. Sometimes the task execution results in spectacular success that delights the spectators and other times it leads to an embarrassing failure that baffles everyone, except the person who programmed the robot. Clearly, if robots were to become smart, they will need to ask for help when they are unable to do a task. 

Occasional robot failures can be tolerated. However, using humans to frequently clean up the mess created by robots is simply not a viable business model for using robots. Currently, deploying robots in industrial applications requires the reliability of robotic task execution to be very high. This is accomplished by designing specialized hardware and software. Extensive system testing is needed to ensure that potential failure modes are well understood and contingency plans are developed to handle them. Typically, task execution failures shut down the line and require human intervention to clear the fault and restart the line. This type of intervention is very expensive and hence robots are not used on a task until extremely high-level reliability can be achieved. Customized hardware and software costs can only be justified if the production volume is sufficiently high and tasks are repetitive (e.g., automotive assembly lines). 

To understand the underlying challenges in robot deployment, consider the following scenario. A robot is capable of picking a part if it is presented to the robot at a certain location. However, if the part has shifted from its nominal location, the robot might not be able to grasp it. The robot does not simply know where the transition boundary between task execution success and failure lies. If the part is sufficiently distant from its expected location, as the robot attempts to grasp it, the robot might bump into it, push it further, and jam the material handling system. This can in turn trigger a system fault and shut down the system. 

In order to use robots in small production batch operations or non-repetitive tasks, we will need robots that are able to estimate the probability of task completion before beginning the task. This will enable robots to assess their own confidence in doing a task. If the robot does not have high confidence in completing a task, then it should call for help. This will enable human operators to provide the robot with needed assistance (e.g., better part pose estimation, invoking a different grasping strategy) and prevent major system faults that result from task execution failure. Please keep in mind that the human only needs to help the robot with the portion of the task that is proving to be challenging. The robot can do the rest itself. In most situations, providing task assistance help to robots is much cheaper than recovering from a system shutdown. 

My students have been building a robot to demonstrate this concept in the bin picking context. This project is called RoboSAM (ROBOtic Smart Assistant for Manufacturing). Bin picking capability is representative of a robot’s ability to perceive the desired object in the environment and to successfully pick it up and deliver it in a known pose. If the robot is not sure whether it can pick the desired part from a bin containing many different parts, then it calls a remotely located human operator for help. We call this operational concept human-on-call concept. This is fundamentally different from the human-in-the-loop concept that requires the human operator to actively monitor the manufacturing cell and take control away from the robot when the robot is about to make a mistake. The new concept requires the robot to call the human operator when it decides that it needs help. 

I believe that human-on-the-call concept is the right economic model for deploying robots. It enables humans to move away from doing boring routine tasks to do challenging tasks with which robots struggle. This model allows a single remotely situated human operator to help multiple robots on an “as needed” basis. It also enables robots to be deployed on tasks on which achieving very high success rate will be difficult. For the near foreseeable future, a large number of tasks in small and medium manufacturing companies fall in this category. 

People often ask what humans will do when robots become more widespread. In my opinion, humans will be needed to teach robots how to do different tasks and bail robots out when they are confused. The key will be to develop technologies that allow robots to ask for help when needed. Recent work in our lab is a step in that direction.

Six Recent Trends in Robotics and their Implications

There are signs all around us indicating that the field of robotics is going through a major transformation. Robots are getting significant coverage in the media. Many big companies that have virtually nothing to do with robotics are suddenly on the buying spree to acquire robotics companies. Countries that were not on anyone’s radar screen just few years ago are emerging as major players in the robotics arena. Many designs and operational constraints associated with robots are being obliterated by the use of clouds and social media. Costs are falling rapidly, enabling new applications. The notion of what was considered a robot is changing fast. Most people now agree that drones are robots. We seem to be on the verge of something big that can hopefully impact our lives in a positive way. 

This post lists six main trends and discusses their implications. 

1. Commercial Investments: Recently the commercial sector has made significant investments in robotics. Google has bought several robotics companies. Amazon has bought Kiva Systems and morphed it into Amazon Robotics. Qualcomm has also made investments in robotics. Even venture capitalists are interested in funding robotics companies. Hopefully, these will lead to the adoption of robotics in new applications and accelerate the technology developments.

2. Emergence of New International Players: Traditionally robotics advances mostly came from Japan, the US, and a few European countries. The field is expanding and new international players are emerging. China is making significant investments in robotics. Chinese manufacturers are currently leading the world in terms of procurement of new industrial robots. They are also developing their own low-cost industrial robots. The largest commercial drone maker DJI is from China. South Korea leads the world in terms of robots deployed per 10,000 workers. Recently, South Koreans won the DARPA robotics challenge by beating teams from the US and Japan. The globalization of robotics is expected to create new opportunities and challenge the leadership of the traditional players.

3. Reduction in Hardware Costs: The cost of industrial robots and drones has been declining in the commercial sector. This is expected to enable deployment of robots and drones in new applications. The agricultural sector is being projected as a major new market for robots and drones.

4. Popularity of Drones in Civilian Sector: The use of drones in the civilian sector both domestically and internationally is expected to grow at a rapid rate. Unfortunately, these robots have major vulnerability from the cyber security perspective. Recent examples of hacking of cars illustrate the vulnerability of these vehicles to cyber-attacks. New cyber-security technologies are needed to deal with attacks that can commandeer vehicles and cause physical damage. A serious incident in this area can influence public opinion and cause a major setback for this emerging field.

5. Cloud Robotics: Robots can leverage clouds to do massive data processing and exchange information with other robots in real time. Clouds are freeing robots from computing constraints and giving robots “big enough brains” to deal with challenging situations. Advances in big data are also being embraced by the robotics community to deal with the massive data generated by sensor-rich robots.

6. Leveraging Social Media Data: Robots now have access to data on social media. They can mine data (e.g., images) on social media to gain new “perception” capabilities that can in turn expand their ability to “understand” the environment. Social media can also be used to crowd source demonstrations for helping robots acquire new skills.

The Role of Advanced Manufacturing in Innovation

Here is my testimony for "Make it in America: What’s Next?" panel organized by Congressman Steny Hoyer

1. The ability to innovate will increasingly depend on the presence of a vibrant manufacturing ecosystem.

In today’s global economy, the ability to innovate is crucial to creating new business opportunities and maintaining a healthy economy. The presence of a local manufacturing ecosystem is needed to maintain the US leadership in innovation and creating new industries. Designers need to understand how the manufacturing processes work to realize innovative products that are affordable and compete well globally. This understanding is difficult to achieve if the designers unable to closely interact with manufacturing engineers and experience manufacturing first hand. In today’s fast-paced world, designers need rapid access to manufacturing processes to try many different concepts to select the winner. Often the understanding of innovations in manufacturing processes can also lead to innovations in products. A nation cannot simply hope to continue to be at the forefront of innovations without having a healthy manufacturing infrastructure. There are many nations that are aggressively competing with the US in the innovation arena. The US has done remarkably well in leading the world in providing ground-breaking innovations. Many of these innovations came from companies located in Maryland. But the past performance alone cannot ensure continued future success. The US should make every effort to ensure that it maintains a healthy manufacturing sector.

2. A healthy manufacturing sector provides well-paying jobs and is crucial to the national security.

In addition to enabling innovation, a healthy manufacturing sector is necessary to provide well-paying jobs and maintaining favorable employment numbers. High-value manufacturing also creates export opportunities and helps with the trade balance. A healthy manufacturing sector is also needed to ensure national security. We should never be in a position to import parts that are critical to national security. In today’s era of constant cyber threats, we do not want to become vulnerable by importing parts that might have intentionally placed malware or serious security loopholes. Not doing so will simply give an opportunity to our adversaries to neutralize our technological superiority.

3. Recent advances in manufacturing are creating new opportunities for the US in high-value manufacturing.

The field of manufacturing is currently undergoing major changes. 3D printing is expected to revolutionize manufacturing. It enables designers to realize complex designs rapidly. The cost of 3D printers is dropping dramatically. This means that people who did not have access to manufacturing until now can buy 3D printers and make things themselves. Recent advances in robotics are reducing the need for manual labor and hence making manufacturing economically viable in high-wage rate regions. The Internet of Things technology is expected to lead to smart manufacturing. Companies need to offer high quality products of increasing complexity at a faster pace with lower prices. This makes manufacturing very challenging. Smart manufacturing technologies are expected to significantly improve manufacturing efficiency and productivity. These technologies can also be used to reduce negative environmental impact of manufacturing. Recent advances in materials such as digital materials, multifunctional materials, metamaterials, and programmable materials are expected to enable a new generation of products. Almost all of these advances originated in the US. We should leverage these advanced manufacturing technologies to grow manufacturing industry in the US and Maryland.

4. Advanced manufacturing will require a workforce with strong STEM background.

Advanced manufacturing requires a different kind of workforce. Rather than relying on manual skills, people are expected to work with sophisticated machines. The nature of the products is also expected to change rapidly. This requires a very different kind of workforce. Training the workforce for the next generation manufacturing technologies will require a strong emphasis on STEM subjects and a new pedagogical approach. Schools, colleges, and universities will need new labs with access to advanced manufacturing technologies. A closer partnership with industry will also be needed to ensure that the workforce training programs match the skills required by the industry. The University of Maryland is developing new labs and courses in the Advanced Manufacturing area to support Maryland-based businesses.

5. Recent technological advances are expected to create new business opportunities.

New markets and industries will be created around several emerging areas such as unmanned systems, driverless cars, electric vehicles, next generation batteries, intelligent prosthetic devices, smart appliances, and personalized medicine. Many of these technologies were developed in the US. The US should strive to become the leading world manufacturer and exporter of products in these emerging areas. The state of Maryland should lead the nation by demonstrating how to leverage recent innovations to launch new manufacturing-based businesses.

Building Blocks of South Korea’s Success in DARPA Robotics Challenge

Congratulations to Team KAIST from South Korea for winning the DARPA Robotics Challenge! They accomplished this feat by beating several well-known teams from the US and Japan. Just few years ago it would have been hard to predict this outcome. The rate at which South Korea has made progress in the field of robotics is truly impressive.

South Koreans have been working diligently to emerge as a major player in the high technology and advanced manufacturing areas. Here are some of the factors that provided foundations for South Korea’s noteworthy achievement in the DARPA Robotics Challenge:

• Pre-college students in South Korea consistently lead the world in terms of science and mathematics achievements. This factor is crucial in building a strong workforce in STEM-related areas and producing world-class robotics engineers.
• South Korea has emerged as a leader in the advanced manufacturing area. This enables them to design and build high-performance robotics hardware with remarkable capabilities.
• Becoming a world champion requires a culture of excellence, determination, hard work, and perseverance. South Korea’s performance in Summer Olympics 2012 gives an idea of prevalence of this culture in that country. They were in the second place in terms of per capita gold medals won in the London Olympic Games.
• South Korea is currently one of the top nations in the world in terms of research and development expenditure as a percentage of GDP. The availability of research funding has enabled them to develop the capacity to innovate and realize new robotics technology.
• South Korea is currently number one in the world in terms of industrial robot deployment per 10,000 workers. Many people find it surprising that they are well ahead of Japan and Germany on this metric.

In summary, becoming world-class in any technology endeavor requires talented people, funding, infrastructure, and culture. South Koreans seem to understand this quite well. They are investing in R&D. They have a culture that values STEM education and demands excellence. They have developed the manufacturing infrastructure to facilitate innovation. They have embraced robotics in a big way. Their success in the DARPA Robotics Challenge is simply a return on their long-term investments in science and technology.

Societal Implications of Advanced Manufacturing

What distinguishes humans from other living creatures is their ability to (1) grow food for providing nourishment, (2) alter the surrounding environment (e.g., construct buildings, bridges, roads etc.) to facilitate modern living, and (3) manufacture artifacts to improve the quality of life. 

The importance of being self-reliant on food production is well understood by every nation. For example, the US produces a large portion of food items consumed by its population. Construction by its very nature takes place in the communities that are going to benefit from it. Manufacturing on the other hand has seen large geographical shifts due to economic considerations. This has major societal implications.   

As countries around the world experience high unemployment rates and large trade deficits, there appears to be a vibrant debate about the role of manufacturing in the society. Developed nations are primarily interested in high value manufacturing that creates high paying jobs and export opportunities for its manufacturers. This type of manufacturing is often called Advanced Manufacturing. A number of enabling technologies are having a profound effect on the manufacturing sector. This post explores the value of Advanced Manufacturing in the societal context.

I have categorized advanced manufacturing into four main areas and tried to list challenges, enabling technologies, goals,  and societal implications for them. 

1. Smart Manufacturing

• Challenges: Manufacturing consumes significant resources and negatively impacts the environment. To compete favorably, companies need to offer high quality products of increasing complexity at a faster pace with lower prices.  
• Enabling Technologies for Addressing These Challenges: Internet of Things, Low Cost Sensors, Ubiquitous Computing, Machine Learning, and Cloud Computing
• Goal: Improve manufacturing efficiency and productivity
• Societal Implications:  Reduce environmental impact of manufacturing, create high paying jobs in manufacturing, and reduce cost 

2. Automation

• Challenge: Manufacturing involves significant manual labor and hence not competitive in high wage regions  
• Enabling Technologies for Addressing This Challenge: Digital Models, Virtual Prototyping Software, Human-Friendly Robots, Human Robot Collaboration, and Automated Material Handling Systems  
• Goal: Reduce human labor in manufacturing 
• Societal Implications: Make domestic production viable, increase exports, and enhance national security by reducing reliance on imported goods

3. Advanced Materials 

• Challenge: Existing materials limit the design options
• Enabling Technologies for Addressing This Challenge: Advances in Nanotechnology, Biotechnology, and Composites  
• Goal: Develop new materials to overcome functional limitations of existing materials
• Societal Implications: Enable invention and creation of new products    

4. Process Innovations

• Challenge: Existing processes impose constraints on what can be made
• Enabling Technologies for Addressing This Challenge: 3D Printing, Additive Manufacturing, In-Mold Assembly, Microfabrication, and Nanofabrication
• Goal: Develop new processes to overcome limitations of existing processes
• Societal Implications: Democratize manufacturing, empower innovators, reduce barriers to create new businesses based on new products  

I would like to hear your thoughts.

What are the Implications of the Rise of Chinese Industrial Robotics Industry?

A large fraction of the world’s manufacturing takes place in China. Historically, the manufacturing moved to China because of low wages and lenient environmental regulations. However, things are beginning to change in China. Wages are increasingly rising. Due to the one-child policy, age demographics are rapidly shifting. The ratio of the available labor force to the total population is expected to decrease. The percentage of people who are above 60 is expected to increase from 15 percent to 25 percent over the next fifteen years. These factors are expected to create a shortage of labor in the future.      

China has emerged as a dominant player in the low-cost manufacturing sector. China would like to become a significant player in the advanced manufacturing sector to maintain growth and offer high-value products. Advanced manufacturing requires precision, consistency, and high quality. Automation and robotics are considered an important ingredient to become a serious player in the advanced manufacturing arena.

China is aggressively pushing deployment of robots as a solution to the anticipated shortage of labor and its desire to move into the high-value added advanced manufacturing sector. China deployed almost 38,000 new industrial robots in 2013. Robot deployment in China has been growing at nearly 30 percent per year over the last few years. In 2013, approximately 168,000 industrial robots (excluding electronic packaging robots) were sold worldwide.  China bought more than 20 percent of the industrial robots sold worldwide. Clearly, China has emerged as a serious market for selling industrial robots.

Korea is currently the world leader in terms of the number robots deployed per worker basis.  It uses 396 robots per 10,000 workers. China currently only uses 23 robots per 10,000 workers. The same figures for Japan and Germany are 332 and 273.  China has a lot of catching up to do. There is no reason to believe that robot numbers in China will not approach 200 per 10,000 workers over the next few years. This should generate demand of approximately 400,000 robots per year in China alone. This is clearly great news for the industrial robotics companies.

China has been developing its own industrial robots. China’s domestic manufacturers sold nearly 10,000 robots in 2013. I believe that the Chinese manufacturers will ultimately utilize a large number of domestically produced robots. Hence, it is likely that Chinese domestic industrial robotics industry would have lion’s share of 400,000 robots sold annually in China. If they achieve even 75 percent of the market share in China, they will be bigger than US, European, Japanese, and Korean industrial robotics companies combined together.

Some people disagree with this assessment and use the following argument to defend their position. Even though a large volume of manufacturing takes place in China, the equipment used in the manufacturing is produced in other countries and imported to China.  Representative examples include optical fiber manufacturing equipment, IC manufacturing equipment, and CNC machines.

Some people cite China’s inability to create a strong domestic manufacturing equipment industry as a reason for why China is unlikely to emerge as a significant player in the industrial robotics industry. In my opinion, this comparison is flawed.

There are fundamental differences between industrial robots and other manufacturing equipment such as CNC machines. When a part is produced on a CNC machine, it carries the signature of the machine on which it was made. The accuracy and precision of the machine get reflected in the quality of the part produced. By examining the part, one can make inferences about the quality of the machine on which the part is made.  Hence, it often makes sense to buy high quality machines to add new capability and gain competitive advantage. In most situations, the robot just needs to be able to move the part from one place to another. Once the part leaves the robot’s hand, there is no residual impression of the robot hand on the part. You cannot examine the part and figure out which robot moved it. Hence, you just need to get a robot that will get the job done. There is no point in paying for a higher performance. I believe that there are many tasks where high performance is not needed and hence one can get away with simple robots. I don’t see any reason why Chinese manufacturers will not be able to create useful robots to serve market needs in simple pick-and-place tasks.                      

If Chinese robot manufacturers have a sufficient large volume, they should be able to drive the cost of domestically produced robots significantly. If an Indian automotive company can sell a car for less than $3,000 (e.g., Tata Nano), Chinese manufacturers should certainly be able to sell a robot for less than $5,000. Doing this will require significant support from the Chinese government, but there is no fundamental reason why this cannot be done.

Here are some interesting questions related to the rise of Chinese industrial robot industry:

• If the Chinese were to be successful in producing lost-cost robots, would they export them to the rest of the world? How will it impact the market share of the other leading industrial robotics companies? 
• If the rest of the world had access to really cheap robots, would Chinese manufacturers have any inherent advantage? Would the rise of Chinese robotics industry deliver low-cost robots to help the rest of the world successfully compete with Chinese manufacturers?      
• Many business leaders in the developed world believe that the cost advantages held by Chinese manufacturers can be neutralized by using automation and robots. This is with the assumption that everyone will have to pay the same price for their robots. What if the Chinese robot manufacturers simply decide not to export their robots? In this case, the Chinese will have access to $5,000 robots, the rest of the world will need to pay at least $25,000 (based on current pricing) to get their robots. The world won’t be flat in this case.                    
• If Chinese manufacturers mainly focus on the advanced manufacturing, who would be the world’s manufacturer for low-cost mundane parts?      

Unfortunately, I don’t know the answers to the above questions. I would love to hear your thoughts.

International Robot Exhibition 2013: Interesting Trends and their Implications

I attended the International Robot Exhibition (iREX) in Tokyo in November 2013.  It was a mesmerizing display of robots – a gigantic hall filled with thousands of robots.  Robotics companies bring their latest and greatest robots to this exhibition.  As you walked through the exhibition hall, you saw a wide variety of amazing advances in the field of robotics.

I noticed several common trends in new product offerings from many different companies. The underlying technologies behind these products were proposed many years ago, but for a while these were serving niche markets. However, it appears that suddenly these technologies have become mainstream, and several different large established companies are featuring new products based on these ideas. So finally after many years of wait, these ideas have moved from labs to the mainstream robotics industry. 

Here is my pick of four noteworthy trends based on products offered by established companies in robotics space: 
 
Dual Arm Robots: Humans (and many other primates) have two arms, but industrial robots for the longest time have featured only single arms. The argument was that if a task needed two arms, you can buy two arms and mount them next to each other.  The mainstream robotics companies resisted the idea of connecting two arms to a body and selling it as an integrated package. However, it appears that thinking in the industrial robots community has changed over the last couple of years. Many companies at iREX were displaying new robots with two arms. In my opinion, the dual arm robot configuration will provide new advances in the dexterous manipulation area where two arms can be moved in a coordinated way to work with complex tools. Humans have a naturally tendency to utilize both of their hands when doing a task. Imagine cooking dinner with one hand tied behind your back! So dual arm configuration should it make it much easier for humans and robots to collaborate on complex tasks.    

ABB Dual Arm Robot

Nachi Dual Arm Robot

Eyes on the Hand: I saw several robots with cameras mounted very close to the hand. This configuration gives robots unobstructed close-up view of the parts being manipulated. This idea was proposed more than twenty years ago, but there were reservations in implementing it on the shop floor due to concerns about acquiring quality images and registering the images with a fast moving camera. I am happy to see that these challenges have been overcome and this configuration is featured on many robots. This configuration will enable new advances in visual servoing and enhance the accuracy of the fine manipulation of objects previously unseen by the robot. It is interesting to note that in the first trend reported above, companies created robots that embraced the anthropomorphic configuration. However, this trend moved robots away from anthropomorphic configuration by placing eyes on the hand. Cameras are inexpensive, so robots can afford to have eyes on the limbs. I am sure that many humans have wished that they had a pair of extra eyes.

Motoman Robot with Camera on Hand

Wearable Robots: There were many different kinds of robots on display that people can wear to enhance their capabilities, ranging from walking assist devices to exoskeletons. Some of these robots are targeting the physical therapy and rehabilitation market to help people recover from injuries or loss of motor functions due to medical complications (e.g., stroke). Some robots are targeting the assistive technology market to help people cope with diminished abilities due to aging or other medical conditions. It appears that the robotics industry has combined high efficiency actuators, lightweight structural materials, and new battery technologies to finally create useful products. Wearable robots are expected to positively impact the quality of life as the average human lifespan continues to increase due to the advances in medicine. They also provide new ways to carry out physical therapy and rehabilitation. I believe that they will eventually enter the sports market to help with athlete training. There is plenty of room in the amateur market too. It will be great to have a wearable robot that can teach you how to swing your golf club.

Honda Walking Assist Device

High Speed Pick and Place Robots Based on Parallel Kinematics:  Parallel kinematics based robots hold significant promise because the actuators can be placed near the base of the robot, significantly reducing the inertia of the moving links and enabling high speed operation. I was happy to see that every major company was featuring high speed pick and place robots based on parallel kinematics. Companies were reporting impressive workspace sizes, high repeatability, and large payload capacity in robots based on parallel kinematics. These robots are bringing speeds comparable to the hardware based fixed automation to programmable automation.               

ABB Flex Picker

Kawasaki Delta Robot